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Mississippi State vs Missouri prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MSST 41% win59% MIZ
25Projected
vs
29ProjectedNeutral site
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Record 4–3 · #47 in ratings
Neutral site
Missouri Tigers
Record 5–2 · #28 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 66 vs 80
- Projected
- MIZ favored
- Differential
- 3.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Missouri by 3.6
- Projected total
- 54.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- Mississippi State wins by 21+
- 5.7%
- Missouri wins by 21+
- 13.2%
- Median score
- 24–28
- Model expectation
- 24.9–28.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Mississippi State wins, bars on the left are Missouri wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Missouri 27, Mississippi State 1754 games
- Missouri 27, Mississippi State 2453 games
- Missouri 24, Mississippi State 2053 games
- Missouri 31, Mississippi State 2051 games
- Mississippi State 24, Missouri 2049 games
- Mississippi State 27, Missouri 2047 games
Where the edges are
Mississippi State offense vs Missouri defenseOffense +3.8Defense +4.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
Missouri offense vs Mississippi State defenseOffense +2.6Defense -0.0Edge Missouri: its offense is 2.7 points better than Mississippi State's defense.
| Stat | Mississippi State | Missouri | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.14 | 0.17 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.14 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.5% | 41.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1% | 35.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.0 | 31.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.7 | 19.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.