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Mississippi State vs Oklahoma prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MSST 46% win54% OU
22Projected
vs
23ProjectedNeutral site
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Record 4–3 · #47 in ratings
Neutral site
Oklahoma Sooners
Record 4–3 · #39 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 66 vs 72
- Projected
- OU favored
- Differential
- 1.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Oklahoma by 1.3
- Projected total
- 45.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.6%
- Went to overtime
- 4.8%
- Mississippi State wins by 21+
- 7.0%
- Oklahoma wins by 21+
- 9.3%
- Median score
- 21–23
- Model expectation
- 21.8–22.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Mississippi State wins, bars on the left are Oklahoma wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Mississippi State 24, Oklahoma 2074 games
- Mississippi State 20, Oklahoma 1773 games
- Oklahoma 17, Mississippi State 1072 games
- Oklahoma 17, Mississippi State 1367 games
- Oklahoma 20, Mississippi State 1767 games
- Oklahoma 24, Mississippi State 2066 games
Where the edges are
Mississippi State offense vs Oklahoma defenseOffense +3.8Defense +7.7Edge Oklahoma: its defense is 3.9 points better than Mississippi State's offense.
Oklahoma offense vs Mississippi State defenseOffense -2.9Defense -0.0Edge Mississippi State: its defense is 2.9 points better than Oklahoma's offense.
| Stat | Mississippi State | Oklahoma | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.14 | -0.02 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.14 | -0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.5% | 36.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1% | 33.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.0 | 21.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.7 | 17.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.