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Mississippi State vs Ole Miss prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 AM CT, at Ole Miss
MSST 25% win75% MISS
26Projected36If MSST upsets
vs
36Projected26If MSST upsetsAway
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Record 4–3 · #47 in ratings
Home
Ole Miss Rebels
Record 5–2 · #10 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (55)
Starts at 55, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | MSST | MISS | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 73 | 63 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog25%Mississippi State wins on the road
If Mississippi State plays at home39% ▲
Mississippi State: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (Missouri 31–24, South Carolina 41–34)
Ole Miss: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Florida 28–52)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Mississippi State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- MISS 34, MSST 2060 games
- MISS 34, MSST 2749 games
- MISS 41, MSST 2745 games
- MISS 34, MSST 3044 games
- MISS 37, MSST 2443 games
- Power index
- 66 vs 93
- Projected
- MISS favored
- Differential
- 10.7 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Ole Miss, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 AM CT, at Ole Miss.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Ole Miss by 10.7
- Projected total
- 61.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 33.7%
- Went to overtime
- 2.6%
- Mississippi State wins by 21+
- 2.5%
- Ole Miss wins by 21+
- 26.9%
- Median score
- 24–36
- Model expectation
- 25.3–35.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Mississippi State wins, bars on the left are Ole Miss wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Mississippi State offense vs Ole Miss defenseOffense +3.8Defense +2.7Edge Mississippi State: its offense is 1.0 points better than Ole Miss's defense.
Ole Miss offense vs Mississippi State defenseOffense +8.6Defense -0.0Edge Ole Miss: its offense is 8.7 points better than Mississippi State's defense.
| Stat | Mississippi State | Ole Miss | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.14 | 0.26 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.14 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.5% | 48.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1% | 43.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.0 | 36.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.7 | 25.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
