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Mississippi State vs South Carolina prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MSST 45% win55% SC
29Projected
vs
31ProjectedNeutral site
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Record 4–3 · #47 in ratings
Neutral site
South Carolina Gamecocks
Record 4–3 · #34 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 66 vs 76
- Projected
- SC favored
- Differential
- 2.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- South Carolina by 2.0
- Projected total
- 60.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- Mississippi State wins by 21+
- 7.6%
- South Carolina wins by 21+
- 11.6%
- Median score
- 29–31
- Model expectation
- 28.8–30.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Mississippi State wins, bars on the left are South Carolina wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- South Carolina 30, Mississippi State 2754 games
- Mississippi State 34, South Carolina 2746 games
- Mississippi State 31, South Carolina 2744 games
- South Carolina 34, Mississippi State 2742 games
- South Carolina 34, Mississippi State 3042 games
- Mississippi State 27, South Carolina 2042 games
Where the edges are
Mississippi State offense vs South Carolina defenseOffense +3.8Defense +0.7Edge Mississippi State: its offense is 3.1 points better than South Carolina's defense.
South Carolina offense vs Mississippi State defenseOffense +5.1Defense -0.0Edge South Carolina: its offense is 5.2 points better than Mississippi State's defense.
| Stat | Mississippi State | South Carolina | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.14 | 0.19 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.14 | 0.13 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.5% | 44.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1% | 42.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.0 | 36.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.7 | 25.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.