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Mississippi State vs Texas prediction
Kickoff Sat 6:30 PM CT, at Texas
MSST 23% win77% TEX
20Projected
vs
31ProjectedAway
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Record 4–3 · #47 in ratings
Home
Texas Longhorns
Record 5–2 · #9 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 66 vs 94
- Projected
- TEX favored
- Differential
- 10.9 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Texas, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 6:30 PM CT, at Texas.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas by 10.9
- Projected total
- 51.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 32.9%
- Went to overtime
- 2.8%
- Mississippi State wins by 21+
- 1.8%
- Texas wins by 21+
- 26.2%
- Median score
- 20–31
- Model expectation
- 20.1–31
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Mississippi State wins, bars on the left are Texas wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Texas 27, Mississippi State 1758 games
- Texas 34, Mississippi State 2457 games
- Texas 27, Mississippi State 1057 games
- Texas 34, Mississippi State 1756 games
- Texas 30, Mississippi State 1750 games
- Texas 27, Mississippi State 2448 games
Where the edges are
Mississippi State offense vs Texas defenseOffense +3.8Defense +8.0Edge Texas: its defense is 4.2 points better than Mississippi State's offense.
Texas offense vs Mississippi State defenseOffense +3.7Defense -0.0Edge Texas: its offense is 3.7 points better than Mississippi State's defense.
| Stat | Mississippi State | Texas | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.14 | 0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.14 | -0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.5% | 42.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1% | 34.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.0 | 30.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.7 | 19.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.