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Missouri State vs SMU prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MOST 12% win88% SMU
22Projected
vs
39ProjectedNeutral site
Missouri State Bears
Record 2–5 · #130 in ratings
Neutral site
SMU Mustangs
Record 6–1 · #37 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 6 vs 74
- Projected
- SMU favored
- Differential
- 17.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- SMU by 17.0
- Projected total
- 60.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 23.2%
- Went to overtime
- 1.6%
- Missouri State wins by 21+
- 0.6%
- SMU wins by 21+
- 40.6%
- Median score
- 21–38
- Model expectation
- 21.4–38.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Missouri State wins, bars on the left are SMU wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- SMU 37, Missouri State 1759 games
- SMU 41, Missouri State 2452 games
- SMU 41, Missouri State 1751 games
- SMU 41, Missouri State 2048 games
- SMU 37, Missouri State 1048 games
- SMU 37, Missouri State 2047 games
Where the edges are
Missouri State offense vs SMU defenseOffense -2.7Defense +1.6Edge SMU: its defense is 4.4 points better than Missouri State's offense.
SMU offense vs Missouri State defenseOffense +3.8Defense -8.7Edge SMU: its offense is 12.5 points better than Missouri State's defense.
| Stat | Missouri State | SMU | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.08 | 0.24 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.27 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.1% | 49.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 49.0% | 37.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 36.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 34.9 | 21.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.