Loading the matchup…
Missouri State vs Western Kentucky prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MOST 42% win58% WKU
27Projected
vs
30ProjectedNeutral site
Missouri State Bears
Record 2–5 · #130 in ratings
Neutral site
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Record 3–4 · #119 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 6 vs 14
- Projected
- WKU favored
- Differential
- 3.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Western Kentucky by 3.0
- Projected total
- 56.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.8%
- Missouri State wins by 21+
- 5.5%
- Western Kentucky wins by 21+
- 11.8%
- Median score
- 27–30
- Model expectation
- 26.3–29.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Missouri State wins, bars on the left are Western Kentucky wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Western Kentucky 34, Missouri State 2763 games
- Western Kentucky 27, Missouri State 2357 games
- Missouri State 31, Western Kentucky 2753 games
- Western Kentucky 23, Missouri State 2053 games
- Western Kentucky 34, Missouri State 2052 games
- Western Kentucky 24, Missouri State 2049 games
Where the edges are
Missouri State offense vs Western Kentucky defenseOffense -2.7Defense -3.3Even: neither side has a real edge.
Western Kentucky offense vs Missouri State defenseOffense -5.2Defense -8.7Edge Western Kentucky: its offense is 3.4 points better than Missouri State's defense.
| Stat | Missouri State | Western Kentucky | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.08 | 0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.27 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.1% | 36.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 49.0% | 39.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 21.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 34.9 | 30.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.