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Missouri vs Arkansas prediction
Kickoff Sat 6:45 PM CT, at Arkansas
MIZ 72% win28% ARK
28Projected20If ARK upsets
vs
20Projected29If ARK upsetsAway
Missouri Tigers
Record 5–2 · #28 in ratings
Home
Arkansas Razorbacks
Record 3–4 · #91 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (46)
Starts at 46, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | MIZ | ARK | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 63 | 53 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog28%Arkansas wins at home
At a neutral site21% ▼
Arkansas: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Tulsa 34–6)
Missouri: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Mississippi State 24–31)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Arkansas won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- MIZ 27, ARK 1771 games
- MIZ 24, ARK 1767 games
- MIZ 30, ARK 1765 games
- MIZ 27, ARK 2064 games
- MIZ 27, ARK 1059 games
- Power index
- 80 vs 34
- Projected
- MIZ favored
- Differential
- 8.3 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Arkansas, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 6:45 PM CT, at Arkansas.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Missouri by 8.3
- Projected total
- 48.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Missouri wins by 21+
- 19.2%
- Arkansas wins by 21+
- 2.6%
- Median score
- 28–20
- Model expectation
- 28–19.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Missouri wins, bars on the left are Arkansas wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Missouri offense vs Arkansas defenseOffense +2.6Defense -1.1Edge Missouri: its offense is 3.7 points better than Arkansas's defense.
Arkansas offense vs Missouri defenseOffense -2.9Defense +4.6Edge Missouri: its defense is 7.5 points better than Arkansas's offense.
| Stat | Missouri | Arkansas | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.17 | 0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.01 | 0.20 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.2% | 43.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 35.1% | 43.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.1 | 21.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 19.6 | 26.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
