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Navy vs North Texas prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NAVY 34% win66% UNT
32Projected
vs
39ProjectedNeutral site
Navy Midshipmen
Record 2–5 · #84 in ratings
Neutral site
North Texas Mean Green
Record 5–2 · #41 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 39 vs 71
- Projected
- UNT favored
- Differential
- 6.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- North Texas by 6.6
- Projected total
- 70.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.5%
- Went to overtime
- 2.6%
- Navy wins by 21+
- 4.0%
- North Texas wins by 21+
- 18.8%
- Median score
- 31–38
- Model expectation
- 31.5–38.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Navy wins, bars on the left are North Texas wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- North Texas 37, Navy 3445 games
- North Texas 41, Navy 3441 games
- North Texas 37, Navy 2740 games
- North Texas 41, Navy 3737 games
- North Texas 40, Navy 3035 games
- North Texas 34, Navy 2033 games
Where the edges are
Navy offense vs North Texas defenseOffense +0.1Defense -5.6Edge Navy: its offense is 5.7 points better than North Texas's defense.
North Texas offense vs Navy defenseOffense +10.1Defense -2.6Edge North Texas: its offense is 12.7 points better than Navy's defense.
| Stat | Navy | North Texas | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.22 | 0.37 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | 0.15 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.5% | 49.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 44.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 29.7 | 43.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.1 | 30.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.