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Navy vs Notre Dame prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at a neutral site
NAVY 8% win92% ND
17Projected
vs
37ProjectedNeutral site
Navy Midshipmen
Record 2–5 · #84 in ratings
Neutral site
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Record 6–1 · #1 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 39 vs 100
- Projected
- ND favored
- Differential
- 20.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at a neutral site.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Notre Dame by 20.3
- Projected total
- 53.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 17.3%
- Went to overtime
- 1.1%
- Navy wins by 21+
- 0.3%
- Notre Dame wins by 21+
- 50.0%
- Median score
- 16–37
- Model expectation
- 16.5–36.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Navy wins, bars on the left are Notre Dame wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Notre Dame 37, Navy 1069 games
- Notre Dame 37, Navy 1765 games
- Notre Dame 33, Navy 1758 games
- Notre Dame 44, Navy 1057 games
- Notre Dame 30, Navy 1757 games
- Notre Dame 40, Navy 1055 games
Where the edges are
Navy offense vs Notre Dame defenseOffense +0.1Defense +9.4Edge Notre Dame: its defense is 9.2 points better than Navy's offense.
Notre Dame offense vs Navy defenseOffense +8.4Defense -2.6Edge Notre Dame: its offense is 11.1 points better than Navy's defense.
| Stat | Navy | Notre Dame | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.22 | 0.36 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | -0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.5% | 50.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 34.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 29.7 | 41.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.1 | 13.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.