Loading the matchup…
Navy vs UAB prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NAVY 60% win40% UAB
27Projected
vs
24ProjectedNeutral site
Navy Midshipmen
Record 2–5 · #84 in ratings
Neutral site
UAB Blazers
Record 4–3 · #103 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 39 vs 26
- Projected
- NAVY favored
- Differential
- 3.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Navy by 3.6
- Projected total
- 50.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- Navy wins by 21+
- 12.8%
- UAB wins by 21+
- 5.5%
- Median score
- 27–23
- Model expectation
- 27–23.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Navy wins, bars on the left are UAB wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Navy 20, UAB 1772 games
- Navy 27, UAB 2067 games
- Navy 24, UAB 1764 games
- Navy 24, UAB 2062 games
- Navy 27, UAB 1759 games
- UAB 27, Navy 2458 games
Where the edges are
Navy offense vs UAB defenseOffense +0.1Defense -1.1Edge Navy: its offense is 1.2 points better than UAB's defense.
UAB offense vs Navy defenseOffense -5.1Defense -2.6Edge Navy: its defense is 2.5 points better than UAB's offense.
| Stat | Navy | UAB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.22 | 0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | 0.02 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.5% | 41.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 43.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 29.7 | 23.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.1 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.