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NC State vs California prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at NC State
NCSU 66% win34% CAL
32Projected24If CAL upsets
vs
26Projected35If CAL upsetsHome
NC State Wolfpack
Record 3–4 · #93 in ratings
Away
California Golden Bears
Record 3–5 · #111 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Starts at 50, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | NCSU | CAL | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 49 | 85 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog34%California wins on the road
If California plays at home49% ▲
California: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (Virginia Tech 25–20, Syracuse 21–18)
NC State: 2 losses to lower-rated teams (Stanford 28–31, Vanderbilt 31–35)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games California won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- NCSU 27, CAL 2067 games
- NCSU 34, CAL 3052 games
- CAL 27, NCSU 2047 games
- NCSU 34, CAL 2746 games
- NCSU 24, CAL 2044 games
- Power index
- 33 vs 20
- Projected
- NCSU favored
- Differential
- 5.9 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at NC State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at NC State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- NC State by 5.9
- Projected total
- 58.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- NC State wins by 21+
- 16.9%
- California wins by 21+
- 4.4%
- Median score
- 31–26
- Model expectation
- 32.1–26.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are NC State wins, bars on the left are California wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
NC State offense vs California defenseOffense -0.4Defense -5.2Edge NC State: its offense is 4.8 points better than California's defense.
California offense vs NC State defenseOffense -1.8Defense -3.7Edge California: its offense is 1.9 points better than NC State's defense.
| Stat | NC State | California | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.22 | -0.02 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.23 | 0.18 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.0% | 37.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 40.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 32.3 | 23.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 28.1 | 31.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
