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NC State vs Vanderbilt prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NCSU 57% win43% VAN
29Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
NC State Wolfpack
Record 3–4 · #93 in ratings
Neutral site
Vanderbilt Commodores
Record 3–5 · #109 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 33 vs 21
- Projected
- NCSU favored
- Differential
- 2.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- NC State by 2.6
- Projected total
- 55.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- NC State wins by 21+
- 11.9%
- Vanderbilt wins by 21+
- 6.3%
- Median score
- 28–26
- Model expectation
- 28.7–25.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are NC State wins, bars on the left are Vanderbilt wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- NC State 27, Vanderbilt 2457 games
- Vanderbilt 34, NC State 3056 games
- Vanderbilt 24, NC State 2051 games
- NC State 27, Vanderbilt 2050 games
- Vanderbilt 31, NC State 2748 games
- NC State 27, Vanderbilt 1748 games
Where the edges are
NC State offense vs Vanderbilt defenseOffense -0.4Defense -3.3Edge NC State: its offense is 2.9 points better than Vanderbilt's defense.
Vanderbilt offense vs NC State defenseOffense -3.5Defense -3.7Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | NC State | Vanderbilt | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.22 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.23 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.0% | 40.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 45.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 32.3 | 22.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 28.1 | 30.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.