Loading the matchup…
NC State vs Virginia prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NCSU 35% win65% UVA
21Projected
vs
27ProjectedNeutral site
NC State Wolfpack
Record 3–4 · #93 in ratings
Neutral site
Virginia Cavaliers
Record 4–4 · #58 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 33 vs 58
- Projected
- UVA favored
- Differential
- 5.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Virginia by 5.6
- Projected total
- 47.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.3%
- Went to overtime
- 4.0%
- NC State wins by 21+
- 3.7%
- Virginia wins by 21+
- 15.4%
- Median score
- 20–27
- Model expectation
- 20.9–26.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are NC State wins, bars on the left are Virginia wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Virginia 27, NC State 1782 games
- Virginia 24, NC State 1766 games
- Virginia 20, NC State 1764 games
- Virginia 24, NC State 2061 games
- Virginia 27, NC State 2059 games
- Virginia 24, NC State 1057 games
Where the edges are
NC State offense vs Virginia defenseOffense -0.4Defense +4.5Edge Virginia: its defense is 4.9 points better than NC State's offense.
Virginia offense vs NC State defenseOffense -3.1Defense -3.7Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | NC State | Virginia | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.22 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.23 | 0.09 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.0% | 44.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 39.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 32.3 | 28.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 28.1 | 19.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.