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NC State vs Wake Forest prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NCSU 15% win85% WAKE
19Projected
vs
34ProjectedNeutral site
NC State Wolfpack
Record 3–4 · #93 in ratings
Neutral site
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Record 6–1 · #11 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 33 vs 93
- Projected
- WAKE favored
- Differential
- 15.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Wake Forest by 15.2
- Projected total
- 53.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 26.1%
- Went to overtime
- 2.1%
- NC State wins by 21+
- 0.8%
- Wake Forest wins by 21+
- 35.4%
- Median score
- 17–34
- Model expectation
- 18.9–34.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are NC State wins, bars on the left are Wake Forest wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Wake Forest 34, NC State 1764 games
- Wake Forest 37, NC State 1763 games
- Wake Forest 34, NC State 1056 games
- Wake Forest 30, NC State 1754 games
- Wake Forest 34, NC State 2053 games
- Wake Forest 27, NC State 1752 games
Where the edges are
NC State offense vs Wake Forest defenseOffense -0.4Defense +6.4Edge Wake Forest: its defense is 6.8 points better than NC State's offense.
Wake Forest offense vs NC State defenseOffense +4.6Defense -3.7Edge Wake Forest: its offense is 8.3 points better than NC State's defense.
| Stat | NC State | Wake Forest | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.22 | 0.36 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.23 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.0% | 49.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 41.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 32.3 | 37.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 28.1 | 19.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.