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Nebraska vs Ohio prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NEB 79% win21% OHIO
32Projected
vs
21ProjectedNeutral site
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Record 5–2 · #13 in ratings
Neutral site
Ohio Bobcats
Record 6–2 · #80 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 91 vs 42
- Projected
- NEB favored
- Differential
- 11.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Nebraska by 11.9
- Projected total
- 52.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 32.5%
- Went to overtime
- 2.8%
- Nebraska wins by 21+
- 28.0%
- Ohio wins by 21+
- 1.6%
- Median score
- 33–20
- Model expectation
- 32.2–20.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Nebraska wins, bars on the left are Ohio wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Nebraska 27, Ohio 1763 games
- Nebraska 27, Ohio 2459 games
- Nebraska 34, Ohio 1759 games
- Nebraska 37, Ohio 1758 games
- Nebraska 27, Ohio 1054 games
- Nebraska 27, Ohio 2052 games
Where the edges are
Nebraska offense vs Ohio defenseOffense +5.5Defense -0.9Edge Nebraska: its offense is 6.5 points better than Ohio's defense.
Ohio offense vs Nebraska defenseOffense -0.4Defense +5.0Edge Nebraska: its defense is 5.4 points better than Ohio's offense.
| Stat | Nebraska | Ohio | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.06 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.3% | 48.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 33.9% | 40.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.6 | 29.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.4 | 21.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.