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Nebraska vs Ohio State prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Nebraska
NEB 43% win57% OSU
24Projected31If NEB upsets
vs
27Projected20If NEB upsetsHome
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Record 5–2 · #13 in ratings
Away
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record 6–1 · #5 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (49)
Starts at 49, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | NEB | OSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 69 | 51 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up43%Nebraska wins at home
At a neutral site35% ▼
Nebraska: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Ohio State: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Texas 23–24)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Nebraska won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- OSU 27, NEB 2070 games
- OSU 24, NEB 2069 games
- NEB 24, OSU 2061 games
- OSU 31, NEB 2759 games
- OSU 20, NEB 1754 games
- Power index
- 91 vs 97
- Projected
- OSU favored
- Differential
- 2.6 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Nebraska, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Nebraska.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Ohio State by 2.6
- Projected total
- 51.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.2%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- Nebraska wins by 21+
- 6.1%
- Ohio State wins by 21+
- 11.3%
- Median score
- 24–27
- Model expectation
- 24.1–26.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Nebraska wins, bars on the left are Ohio State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Nebraska offense vs Ohio State defenseOffense +5.5Defense +8.7Edge Ohio State: its defense is 3.1 points better than Nebraska's offense.
Ohio State offense vs Nebraska defenseOffense +7.3Defense +5.0Edge Ohio State: its offense is 2.3 points better than Nebraska's defense.
| Stat | Nebraska | Ohio State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | 0.27 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.06 | -0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.3% | 50.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 33.9% | 35.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.6 | 39.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.4 | 13.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
