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Nebraska vs Oregon prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NEB 62% win38% ORE
26Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Record 5–2 · #13 in ratings
Neutral site
Oregon Ducks
Record 4–3 · #32 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 91 vs 77
- Projected
- NEB favored
- Differential
- 4.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Nebraska by 4.4
- Projected total
- 47.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.4%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- Nebraska wins by 21+
- 13.9%
- Oregon wins by 21+
- 4.9%
- Median score
- 26–21
- Model expectation
- 25.5–21.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Nebraska wins, bars on the left are Oregon wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Nebraska 20, Oregon 1770 games
- Nebraska 24, Oregon 2069 games
- Oregon 24, Nebraska 2065 games
- Nebraska 27, Oregon 1762 games
- Nebraska 27, Oregon 2461 games
- Nebraska 24, Oregon 1760 games
Where the edges are
Nebraska offense vs Oregon defenseOffense +5.5Defense +5.8Even: neither side has a real edge.
Oregon offense vs Nebraska defenseOffense +0.4Defense +5.0Edge Nebraska: its defense is 4.7 points better than Oregon's offense.
| Stat | Nebraska | Oregon | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.06 | 0.00 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.3% | 41.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 33.9% | 36.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.6 | 33.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.4 | 20.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.