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Nebraska vs Rutgers prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Rutgers
NEB 83% win17% RUTG
37Projected26If RUTG upsets
vs
23Projected35If RUTG upsetsAway
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Record 5–2 · #13 in ratings
Home
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Record 2–5 · #107 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (48)
Starts at 48, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | NEB | RUTG | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 69 | 30 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert17%Rutgers wins at home
At a neutral site12% ▼
Rutgers: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Maryland 37–30)
Nebraska: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Oregon 14–17)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Rutgers won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- NEB 37, RUTG 1763 games
- NEB 44, RUTG 2450 games
- NEB 37, RUTG 2449 games
- NEB 41, RUTG 2048 games
- NEB 33, RUTG 2447 games
- Power index
- 91 vs 23
- Projected
- NEB favored
- Differential
- 14.3 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Rutgers, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Rutgers.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Nebraska by 14.3
- Projected total
- 59.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 27.3%
- Went to overtime
- 2.4%
- Nebraska wins by 21+
- 34.0%
- Rutgers wins by 21+
- 1.0%
- Median score
- 37–23
- Model expectation
- 36.8–22.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Nebraska wins, bars on the left are Rutgers wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Nebraska offense vs Rutgers defenseOffense +5.5Defense -7.0Edge Nebraska: its offense is 12.5 points better than Rutgers's defense.
Rutgers offense vs Nebraska defenseOffense +0.4Defense +5.0Edge Nebraska: its defense is 4.6 points better than Rutgers's offense.
| Stat | Nebraska | Rutgers | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | 0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.06 | 0.29 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.3% | 44.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 33.9% | 49.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.6 | 28.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.4 | 33.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
