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Nebraska vs Washington prediction
Kickoff Sat 7:00 PM CT, at Nebraska
NEB 83% win17% WASH
34Projected
vs
20ProjectedHome
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Record 5–2 · #13 in ratings
Away
Washington Huskies
Record 4–3 · #77 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 91 vs 45
- Projected
- NEB favored
- Differential
- 14.3 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Nebraska, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 7:00 PM CT, at Nebraska.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Nebraska by 14.3
- Projected total
- 53.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 28.2%
- Went to overtime
- 2.4%
- Nebraska wins by 21+
- 34.2%
- Washington wins by 21+
- 1.3%
- Median score
- 34–19
- Model expectation
- 33.7–19.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Nebraska wins, bars on the left are Washington wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Nebraska 27, Washington 1064 games
- Nebraska 37, Washington 1756 games
- Nebraska 30, Washington 1754 games
- Nebraska 33, Washington 1753 games
- Nebraska 27, Washington 2051 games
- Nebraska 34, Washington 1750 games
Where the edges are
Nebraska offense vs Washington defenseOffense +5.5Defense -0.9Edge Nebraska: its offense is 6.4 points better than Washington's defense.
Washington offense vs Nebraska defenseOffense +0.1Defense +5.0Edge Nebraska: its defense is 4.9 points better than Washington's offense.
| Stat | Nebraska | Washington | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | 0.14 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.06 | -0.00 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.3% | 43.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 33.9% | 39.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.6 | 27.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.4 | 22.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.