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Nevada vs North Dakota State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NEV 24% win76% NDSU
17Projected
vs
28ProjectedNeutral site
Nevada Wolf Pack
Record 3–4 · #87 in ratings
Neutral site
North Dakota State Bison
Record 6–2 · #31 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 37 vs 78
- Projected
- NDSU favored
- Differential
- 10.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- North Dakota State by 10.1
- Projected total
- 44.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 35.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Nevada wins by 21+
- 1.8%
- North Dakota State wins by 21+
- 23.8%
- Median score
- 17–27
- Model expectation
- 17.1–27.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Nevada wins, bars on the left are North Dakota State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- North Dakota State 24, Nevada 1773 games
- North Dakota State 20, Nevada 1767 games
- North Dakota State 27, Nevada 1066 games
- North Dakota State 30, Nevada 1462 games
- North Dakota State 24, Nevada 2062 games
- North Dakota State 20, Nevada 1061 games
Where the edges are
Nevada offense vs North Dakota State defenseOffense -1.9Defense +6.8Edge North Dakota State: its defense is 8.7 points better than Nevada's offense.
North Dakota State offense vs Nevada defenseOffense +0.0Defense -1.5Edge North Dakota State: its offense is 1.5 points better than Nevada's defense.
| Stat | Nevada | North Dakota State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | 0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | -0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.8% | 39.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.7% | 36.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.3 | 27.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0 | 12.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.