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Nevada vs Northern Illinois prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Northern Illinois
NEV 82% win18% NIU
34Projected23If NIU upsets
vs
21Projected32If NIU upsetsAway
Nevada Wolf Pack
Record 3–4 · #87 in ratings
Home
Northern Illinois Huskies
Record 0–7 · #138 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (49)
Starts at 49, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | NEV | NIU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 58 | 54 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert18%Northern Illinois wins at home
At a neutral site12% ▼
Northern Illinois: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Nevada: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Middle Tennessee 20–27)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Northern Illinois won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- NEV 34, NIU 1769 games
- NEV 27, NIU 2059 games
- NEV 27, NIU 1759 games
- NEV 27, NIU 2456 games
- NEV 30, NIU 1754 games
- Power index
- 37 vs 0
- Projected
- NEV favored
- Differential
- 13.7 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Northern Illinois, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Northern Illinois.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Nevada by 13.7
- Projected total
- 54.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 29.6%
- Went to overtime
- 2.4%
- Nevada wins by 21+
- 32.4%
- Northern Illinois wins by 21+
- 1.2%
- Median score
- 34–20
- Model expectation
- 34.1–20.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Nevada wins, bars on the left are Northern Illinois wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Nevada offense vs Northern Illinois defenseOffense -1.9Defense -11.7Edge Nevada: its offense is 9.8 points better than Northern Illinois's defense.
Northern Illinois offense vs Nevada defenseOffense -8.7Defense -1.5Edge Nevada: its defense is 7.2 points better than Northern Illinois's offense.
| Stat | Nevada | Northern Illinois | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | 0.34 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.8% | 37.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.7% | 52.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.3 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0 | 38.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
