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Nevada vs UCLA prediction
Kickoff Sat 3:15 PM CT, at UCLA
NEV 10% win90% UCLA
14Projected
vs
34ProjectedAway
Nevada Wolf Pack
Record 3–4 · #87 in ratings
Home
UCLA Bruins
Record 7–0 · #8 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 37 vs 95
- Projected
- UCLA favored
- Differential
- 19.2 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at UCLA, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 3:15 PM CT, at UCLA.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UCLA by 19.2
- Projected total
- 47.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 20.2%
- Went to overtime
- 1.4%
- Nevada wins by 21+
- 0.4%
- UCLA wins by 21+
- 46.3%
- Median score
- 14–33
- Model expectation
- 14.4–33.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Nevada wins, bars on the left are UCLA wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UCLA 27, Nevada 780 games
- UCLA 37, Nevada 777 games
- UCLA 30, Nevada 1071 games
- UCLA 34, Nevada 1767 games
- UCLA 27, Nevada 1067 games
- UCLA 41, Nevada 1066 games
Where the edges are
Nevada offense vs UCLA defenseOffense -1.9Defense +8.0Edge UCLA: its defense is 9.9 points better than Nevada's offense.
UCLA offense vs Nevada defenseOffense +4.5Defense -1.5Edge UCLA: its offense is 5.9 points better than Nevada's defense.
| Stat | Nevada | UCLA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | -0.18 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.8% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.7% | 33.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.3 | 34.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.