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Nevada vs UNLV prediction
Kickoff Sat 8:00 PM CT, at UNLV
NEV 35% win65% UNLV
21Projected28If NEV upsets
vs
26Projected18If NEV upsetsAway
Nevada Wolf Pack
Record 3–4 · #87 in ratings
Home
UNLV Rebels
Record 4–3 · #78 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Starts at 50, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | NEV | UNLV | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 58 | 66 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog35%Nevada wins on the road
If Nevada plays at home52% ▲
Nevada: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
UNLV: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Nevada won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- UNLV 20, NEV 1772 games
- UNLV 24, NEV 1771 games
- UNLV 27, NEV 1766 games
- NEV 20, UNLV 1765 games
- UNLV 24, NEV 2063 games
- Power index
- 37 vs 44
- Projected
- UNLV favored
- Differential
- 5.5 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at UNLV, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 8:00 PM CT, at UNLV.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UNLV by 5.5
- Projected total
- 46.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.1%
- Went to overtime
- 4.0%
- Nevada wins by 21+
- 4.2%
- UNLV wins by 21+
- 15.4%
- Median score
- 20–26
- Model expectation
- 20.1–25.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Nevada wins, bars on the left are UNLV wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Nevada offense vs UNLV defenseOffense -1.9Defense +2.3Edge UNLV: its defense is 4.1 points better than Nevada's offense.
UNLV offense vs Nevada defenseOffense -3.1Defense -1.5Edge Nevada: its defense is 1.6 points better than UNLV's offense.
| Stat | Nevada | UNLV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.8% | 38.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.7% | 40.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.3 | 24.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0 | 23.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.