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Nevada vs UTEP prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NEV 80% win20% UTEP
32Projected
vs
19ProjectedNeutral site
Nevada Wolf Pack
Record 3–4 · #87 in ratings
Neutral site
UTEP Miners
Record 1–6 · #134 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 37 vs 3
- Projected
- NEV favored
- Differential
- 12.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Nevada by 12.3
- Projected total
- 50.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 32.0%
- Went to overtime
- 2.9%
- Nevada wins by 21+
- 28.8%
- UTEP wins by 21+
- 1.4%
- Median score
- 31–17
- Model expectation
- 31.2–18.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Nevada wins, bars on the left are UTEP wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Nevada 34, UTEP 1062 games
- Nevada 34, UTEP 1760 games
- Nevada 27, UTEP 2060 games
- Nevada 27, UTEP 1059 games
- Nevada 20, UTEP 1756 games
- Nevada 34, UTEP 2456 games
Where the edges are
Nevada offense vs UTEP defenseOffense -1.9Defense -7.3Edge Nevada: its offense is 5.4 points better than UTEP's defense.
UTEP offense vs Nevada defenseOffense -8.4Defense -1.5Edge Nevada: its defense is 6.9 points better than UTEP's offense.
| Stat | Nevada | UTEP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | -0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | 0.28 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.8% | 33.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.7% | 48.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.3 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0 | 37.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.