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New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NMSU 59% win41% WKU
28Projected
vs
24ProjectedNeutral site
New Mexico State Aggies
Record 3–4 · #100 in ratings
Neutral site
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Record 3–4 · #119 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 28 vs 14
- Projected
- NMSU favored
- Differential
- 3.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- New Mexico State by 3.2
- Projected total
- 51.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- New Mexico State wins by 21+
- 12.6%
- Western Kentucky wins by 21+
- 5.8%
- Median score
- 27–24
- Model expectation
- 27.2–24
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are New Mexico State wins, bars on the left are Western Kentucky wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- New Mexico State 27, Western Kentucky 1765 games
- Western Kentucky 24, New Mexico State 2065 games
- New Mexico State 27, Western Kentucky 2063 games
- New Mexico State 27, Western Kentucky 2461 games
- New Mexico State 24, Western Kentucky 2058 games
- New Mexico State 27, Western Kentucky 2352 games
Where the edges are
New Mexico State offense vs Western Kentucky defenseOffense -1.8Defense -3.3Edge New Mexico State: its offense is 1.4 points better than Western Kentucky's defense.
Western Kentucky offense vs New Mexico State defenseOffense -5.2Defense -3.4Edge New Mexico State: its defense is 1.8 points better than Western Kentucky's offense.
| Stat | New Mexico State | Western Kentucky | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.04 | 0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.05 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.0% | 36.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 38.8% | 39.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 24.6 | 21.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4 | 30.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.