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New Mexico vs New Mexico State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UNM 83% win17% NMSU
32Projected
vs
18ProjectedNeutral site
New Mexico Lobos
Record 6–1 · #19 in ratings
Neutral site
New Mexico State Aggies
Record 3–4 · #100 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 87 vs 28
- Projected
- UNM favored
- Differential
- 13.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- New Mexico by 13.9
- Projected total
- 49.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 28.7%
- Went to overtime
- 2.3%
- New Mexico wins by 21+
- 33.0%
- New Mexico State wins by 21+
- 0.9%
- Median score
- 31–17
- Model expectation
- 31.4–17.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are New Mexico wins, bars on the left are New Mexico State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- New Mexico 34, New Mexico State 1773 games
- New Mexico 34, New Mexico State 1072 games
- New Mexico 27, New Mexico State 1065 games
- New Mexico 31, New Mexico State 1761 games
- New Mexico 37, New Mexico State 1058 games
- New Mexico 30, New Mexico State 1456 games
Where the edges are
New Mexico offense vs New Mexico State defenseOffense +2.2Defense -3.4Edge New Mexico: its offense is 5.6 points better than New Mexico State's defense.
New Mexico State offense vs New Mexico defenseOffense -1.8Defense +6.6Edge New Mexico: its defense is 8.4 points better than New Mexico State's offense.
| Stat | New Mexico | New Mexico State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.17 | 0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.0% | 39.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 30.8% | 38.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 37.0 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 11.3 | 25.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.