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New Mexico vs North Dakota State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UNM 55% win45% NDSU
21Projected
vs
20ProjectedNeutral site
New Mexico Lobos
Record 6–1 · #19 in ratings
Neutral site
North Dakota State Bison
Record 6–2 · #31 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 87 vs 78
- Projected
- UNM favored
- Differential
- 1.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- New Mexico by 1.8
- Projected total
- 41.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 45.8%
- Went to overtime
- 4.8%
- New Mexico wins by 21+
- 9.1%
- North Dakota State wins by 21+
- 5.4%
- Median score
- 21–20
- Model expectation
- 21.2–19.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are New Mexico wins, bars on the left are North Dakota State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- New Mexico 20, North Dakota State 1785 games
- New Mexico 24, North Dakota State 2083 games
- North Dakota State 20, New Mexico 1782 games
- New Mexico 24, North Dakota State 1776 games
- North Dakota State 17, New Mexico 1373 games
- New Mexico 17, North Dakota State 1070 games
Where the edges are
New Mexico offense vs North Dakota State defenseOffense +2.2Defense +6.8Edge North Dakota State: its defense is 4.6 points better than New Mexico's offense.
North Dakota State offense vs New Mexico defenseOffense +0.0Defense +6.6Edge New Mexico: its defense is 6.5 points better than North Dakota State's offense.
| Stat | New Mexico | North Dakota State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | 0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.17 | -0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.0% | 39.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 30.8% | 36.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 37.0 | 27.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 11.3 | 12.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.