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New Mexico vs San José State prediction
Kickoff Sat 3:00 PM CT, at San José State
UNM 83% win17% SJSU
28Projected
vs
15ProjectedAway
New Mexico Lobos
Record 6–1 · #19 in ratings
Home
San José State Spartans
Record 4–4 · #112 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 87 vs 19
- Projected
- UNM favored
- Differential
- 13.2 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at San José State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 3:00 PM CT, at San José State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- New Mexico by 13.2
- Projected total
- 42.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 30.4%
- Went to overtime
- 2.8%
- New Mexico wins by 21+
- 29.8%
- San José State wins by 21+
- 1.1%
- Median score
- 27–14
- Model expectation
- 27.6–14.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are New Mexico wins, bars on the left are San José State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- New Mexico 27, San José State 1091 games
- New Mexico 27, San José State 779 games
- New Mexico 24, San José State 1077 games
- New Mexico 20, San José State 1077 games
- New Mexico 20, San José State 1775 games
- New Mexico 27, San José State 1774 games
Where the edges are
New Mexico offense vs San José State defenseOffense +2.2Defense -1.1Edge New Mexico: its offense is 3.3 points better than San José State's defense.
San José State offense vs New Mexico defenseOffense -6.2Defense +6.6Edge New Mexico: its defense is 12.7 points better than San José State's offense.
| Stat | New Mexico | San José State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.17 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.0% | 38.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 30.8% | 42.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 37.0 | 20.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 11.3 | 22.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.