Loading the matchup…
New Mexico vs UNLV prediction
Kickoff Sat 6:30 PM CT, at New Mexico
UNM 81% win19% UNLV
28Projected17If UNLV upsets
vs
15Projected25If UNLV upsetsHome
New Mexico Lobos
Record 6–1 · #19 in ratings
Away
UNLV Rebels
Record 4–3 · #78 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (59)
Starts at 59, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | UNM | UNLV | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 4.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 56 | 66 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert19%UNLV wins on the road
If UNLV plays at home32% ▲
UNLV: 1 win over a higher-rated team (North Dakota State 13–7)
New Mexico: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Oklahoma 6–14)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games UNLV won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- UNM 27, UNLV 1088 games
- UNM 24, UNLV 776 games
- UNM 24, UNLV 1074 games
- UNM 27, UNLV 772 games
- UNM 20, UNLV 1072 games
- Power index
- 87 vs 44
- Projected
- UNM favored
- Differential
- 12.9 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at New Mexico, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 6:30 PM CT, at New Mexico.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- New Mexico by 12.9
- Projected total
- 42.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 30.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.0%
- New Mexico wins by 21+
- 29.3%
- UNLV wins by 21+
- 1.1%
- Median score
- 27–14
- Model expectation
- 27.2–14.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are New Mexico wins, bars on the left are UNLV wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
New Mexico offense vs UNLV defenseOffense +2.2Defense +2.3Even: neither side has a real edge.
UNLV offense vs New Mexico defenseOffense -3.1Defense +6.6Edge New Mexico: its defense is 9.6 points better than UNLV's offense.
| Stat | New Mexico | UNLV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.18 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.6% | 38.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 30.6% | 40.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 37.0 | 24.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 11.3 | 23.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.