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North Carolina vs TCU prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UNC 48% win52% TCU
18Projected
vs
19ProjectedNeutral site
North Carolina Tar Heels
Record 4–3 · #51 in ratings
Neutral site
TCU Horned Frogs
Record 3–4 · #48 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 64 vs 66
- Projected
- TCU favored
- Differential
- 0.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- TCU by 0.7
- Projected total
- 37.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 47.4%
- Went to overtime
- 5.6%
- North Carolina wins by 21+
- 6.0%
- TCU wins by 21+
- 7.4%
- Median score
- 17–17
- Model expectation
- 17.9–18.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are North Carolina wins, bars on the left are TCU wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- TCU 17, North Carolina 10117 games
- North Carolina 17, TCU 10102 games
- TCU 17, North Carolina 1486 games
- TCU 17, North Carolina 1385 games
- TCU 24, North Carolina 1782 games
- TCU 13, North Carolina 1077 games
Where the edges are
North Carolina offense vs TCU defenseOffense +1.0Defense +8.9Edge TCU: its defense is 7.9 points better than North Carolina's offense.
TCU offense vs North Carolina defenseOffense -5.2Defense +2.1Edge North Carolina: its defense is 7.4 points better than TCU's offense.
| Stat | North Carolina | TCU | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.11 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | -0.06 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.4% | 41.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.8% | 34.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 23.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 13.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.