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North Dakota State vs Northern Illinois prediction
Kickoff Sat 3:00 PM CT, at North Dakota State
NDSU 99% win1% NIU
39Projected19If NIU upsets
vs
9Projected23If NIU upsetsHome
North Dakota State Bison
Record 6–2 · #31 in ratings
Away
Northern Illinois Huskies
Record 0–7 · #138 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (53)
Starts at 53, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | NDSU | NIU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 60 | 54 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Long shot1%Northern Illinois wins on the road
If Northern Illinois plays at home4% ▲
Northern Illinois: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
North Dakota State: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (UNLV 7–13)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Northern Illinois won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- NDSU 37, NIU 0135 games
- NDSU 37, NIU 7130 games
- NDSU 44, NIU 7116 games
- NDSU 34, NIU 0110 games
- NDSU 30, NIU 7109 games
- Power index
- 78 vs 0
- Projected
- NDSU favored
- Differential
- 30.0 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at North Dakota State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 3:00 PM CT, at North Dakota State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- North Dakota State by 30.0
- Projected total
- 47.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 4.7%
- Went to overtime
- 0.2%
- North Dakota State wins by 21+
- 76.1%
- Northern Illinois wins by 21+
- 0.0%
- Median score
- 38–7
- Model expectation
- 39–8.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are North Dakota State wins, bars on the left are Northern Illinois wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
North Dakota State offense vs Northern Illinois defenseOffense +0.0Defense -11.7Edge North Dakota State: its offense is 11.7 points better than Northern Illinois's defense.
Northern Illinois offense vs North Dakota State defenseOffense -8.7Defense +6.8Edge North Dakota State: its defense is 15.5 points better than Northern Illinois's offense.
| Stat | North Dakota State | Northern Illinois | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.10 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.13 | 0.34 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.7% | 37.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 35.9% | 52.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.8 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 12.5 | 38.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
