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North Dakota State vs Sacramento State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NDSU 98% win2% SAC
34Projected
vs
7ProjectedNeutral site
North Dakota State Bison
Record 6–2 · #31 in ratings
Neutral site
Sacramento State Hornets
Record 1–7 · #137 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 78 vs 1
- Projected
- NDSU favored
- Differential
- 26.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- North Dakota State by 26.6
- Projected total
- 40.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 6.8%
- Went to overtime
- 0.4%
- North Dakota State wins by 21+
- 68.3%
- Sacramento State wins by 21+
- 0.0%
- Median score
- 33–7
- Model expectation
- 33.6–7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are North Dakota State wins, bars on the left are Sacramento State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- North Dakota State 34, Sacramento State 0186 games
- North Dakota State 30, Sacramento State 0177 games
- North Dakota State 27, Sacramento State 0168 games
- North Dakota State 37, Sacramento State 0165 games
- North Dakota State 30, Sacramento State 7153 games
- North Dakota State 34, Sacramento State 7142 games
Where the edges are
North Dakota State offense vs Sacramento State defenseOffense +0.0Defense -7.8Edge North Dakota State: its offense is 7.8 points better than Sacramento State's defense.
Sacramento State offense vs North Dakota State defenseOffense -12.0Defense +6.8Edge North Dakota State: its defense is 18.8 points better than Sacramento State's offense.
| Stat | North Dakota State | Sacramento State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.11 | -0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.12 | 0.20 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.9% | 36.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.1% | 41.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.8 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 12.5 | 32.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.