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North Dakota State vs UNLV prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NDSU 71% win29% UNLV
24Projected
vs
16ProjectedNeutral site
North Dakota State Bison
Record 6–2 · #31 in ratings
Neutral site
UNLV Rebels
Record 4–3 · #78 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 78 vs 44
- Projected
- NDSU favored
- Differential
- 7.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- North Dakota State by 7.5
- Projected total
- 40.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.9%
- Went to overtime
- 4.0%
- North Dakota State wins by 21+
- 17.7%
- UNLV wins by 21+
- 2.4%
- Median score
- 23–16
- Model expectation
- 23.5–15.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are North Dakota State wins, bars on the left are UNLV wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- North Dakota State 24, UNLV 1090 games
- North Dakota State 20, UNLV 1785 games
- North Dakota State 24, UNLV 1783 games
- North Dakota State 17, UNLV 1081 games
- North Dakota State 24, UNLV 1475 games
- North Dakota State 17, UNLV 1373 games
Where the edges are
North Dakota State offense vs UNLV defenseOffense +0.0Defense +2.3Edge UNLV: its defense is 2.3 points better than North Dakota State's offense.
UNLV offense vs North Dakota State defenseOffense -3.1Defense +6.8Edge North Dakota State: its defense is 9.9 points better than UNLV's offense.
| Stat | North Dakota State | UNLV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.11 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.12 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.9% | 38.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.1% | 40.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.8 | 24.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 12.5 | 23.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.