Loading the matchup…
North Dakota State vs UTEP prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at North Dakota State
NDSU 98% win3% UTEP
35Projected
vs
9ProjectedHome
North Dakota State Bison
Record 6–2 · #31 in ratings
Away
UTEP Miners
Record 1–6 · #134 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 78 vs 3
- Projected
- NDSU favored
- Differential
- 25.5 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at North Dakota State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at North Dakota State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- North Dakota State by 25.5
- Projected total
- 43.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 8.4%
- Went to overtime
- 0.5%
- North Dakota State wins by 21+
- 64.6%
- UTEP wins by 21+
- 0.0%
- Median score
- 34–7
- Model expectation
- 34.5–9.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are North Dakota State wins, bars on the left are UTEP wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- North Dakota State 34, UTEP 7130 games
- North Dakota State 37, UTEP 7128 games
- North Dakota State 27, UTEP 7118 games
- North Dakota State 30, UTEP 0116 games
- North Dakota State 41, UTEP 7113 games
- North Dakota State 30, UTEP 7113 games
Where the edges are
North Dakota State offense vs UTEP defenseOffense +0.0Defense -7.3Edge North Dakota State: its offense is 7.3 points better than UTEP's defense.
UTEP offense vs North Dakota State defenseOffense -8.4Defense +6.8Edge North Dakota State: its defense is 15.2 points better than UTEP's offense.
| Stat | North Dakota State | UTEP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.11 | -0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.12 | 0.28 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.9% | 33.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.1% | 48.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.8 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 12.5 | 37.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.