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North Dakota State vs Wyoming prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NDSU 88% win12% WYO
25Projected
vs
10ProjectedNeutral site
North Dakota State Bison
Record 6–2 · #31 in ratings
Neutral site
Wyoming Cowboys
Record 5–3 · #113 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 78 vs 18
- Projected
- NDSU favored
- Differential
- 14.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- North Dakota State by 14.5
- Projected total
- 35.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 27.5%
- Went to overtime
- 2.5%
- North Dakota State wins by 21+
- 31.3%
- Wyoming wins by 21+
- 0.4%
- Median score
- 24–10
- Model expectation
- 24.6–10.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are North Dakota State wins, bars on the left are Wyoming wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- North Dakota State 24, Wyoming 7142 games
- North Dakota State 17, Wyoming 7140 games
- North Dakota State 20, Wyoming 7131 games
- North Dakota State 27, Wyoming 7119 games
- North Dakota State 17, Wyoming 10111 games
- North Dakota State 27, Wyoming 10111 games
Where the edges are
North Dakota State offense vs Wyoming defenseOffense +0.0Defense +1.2Edge Wyoming: its defense is 1.2 points better than North Dakota State's offense.
Wyoming offense vs North Dakota State defenseOffense -8.6Defense +6.8Edge North Dakota State: its defense is 15.4 points better than Wyoming's offense.
| Stat | North Dakota State | Wyoming | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.11 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.12 | 0.13 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.9% | 46.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.1% | 44.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.8 | 19.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 12.5 | 20.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.