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North Texas vs Texas State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UNT 59% win41% TXST
38Projected
vs
34ProjectedNeutral site
North Texas Mean Green
Record 5–2 · #41 in ratings
Neutral site
Texas State Bobcats
Record 4–3 · #62 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 71 vs 55
- Projected
- UNT favored
- Differential
- 3.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- North Texas by 3.6
- Projected total
- 72.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.1%
- Went to overtime
- 2.8%
- North Texas wins by 21+
- 14.2%
- Texas State wins by 21+
- 6.3%
- Median score
- 37–34
- Model expectation
- 37.7–34
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are North Texas wins, bars on the left are Texas State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- North Texas 44, Texas State 3446 games
- North Texas 37, Texas State 3443 games
- North Texas 37, Texas State 2742 games
- North Texas 37, Texas State 3342 games
- North Texas 41, Texas State 3042 games
- North Texas 37, Texas State 3037 games
Where the edges are
North Texas offense vs Texas State defenseOffense +10.1Defense -1.9Edge North Texas: its offense is 11.9 points better than Texas State's defense.
Texas State offense vs North Texas defenseOffense +2.6Defense -5.6Edge Texas State: its offense is 8.2 points better than North Texas's defense.
| Stat | North Texas | Texas State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.37 | 0.28 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.15 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.8% | 50.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8% | 44.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 43.1 | 37.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.6 | 30.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.