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North Texas vs UAB prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at North Texas
UNT 82% win18% UAB
39Projected27If UAB upsets
vs
25Projected36If UAB upsetsHome
North Texas Mean Green
Record 5–2 · #41 in ratings
Away
UAB Blazers
Record 4–3 · #103 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (54)
Starts at 54, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | UNT | UAB | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 70 | 58 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert18%UAB wins on the road
If UAB plays at home32% ▲
UAB: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (East Carolina 30–17, Navy 24–20)
North Texas: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Texas State 35–49)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games UAB won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- UNT 34, UAB 2046 games
- UNT 37, UAB 2444 games
- UNT 34, UAB 2744 games
- UNT 33, UAB 1744 games
- UNT 40, UAB 2443 games
- Power index
- 71 vs 26
- Projected
- UNT favored
- Differential
- 13.9 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at North Texas, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at North Texas.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- North Texas by 13.9
- Projected total
- 63.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 28.5%
- Went to overtime
- 2.1%
- North Texas wins by 21+
- 33.7%
- UAB wins by 21+
- 1.6%
- Median score
- 38–24
- Model expectation
- 38.4–24.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are North Texas wins, bars on the left are UAB wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
North Texas offense vs UAB defenseOffense +10.1Defense -1.1Edge North Texas: its offense is 11.1 points better than UAB's defense.
UAB offense vs North Texas defenseOffense -5.1Defense -5.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | North Texas | UAB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.37 | 0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.13 | 0.02 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.8% | 41.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 43.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 43.1 | 23.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.6 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.