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North Texas vs UNLV prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UNT 64% win36% UNLV
34Projected
vs
29ProjectedNeutral site
North Texas Mean Green
Record 5–2 · #41 in ratings
Neutral site
UNLV Rebels
Record 4–3 · #78 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 71 vs 44
- Projected
- UNT favored
- Differential
- 5.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- North Texas by 5.4
- Projected total
- 62.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.4%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- North Texas wins by 21+
- 16.8%
- UNLV wins by 21+
- 5.0%
- Median score
- 34–28
- Model expectation
- 33.6–28.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are North Texas wins, bars on the left are UNLV wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- North Texas 34, UNLV 2750 games
- North Texas 34, UNLV 2043 games
- North Texas 41, UNLV 3441 games
- UNLV 31, North Texas 2739 games
- North Texas 37, UNLV 2739 games
- UNLV 30, North Texas 2739 games
Where the edges are
North Texas offense vs UNLV defenseOffense +10.1Defense +2.3Edge North Texas: its offense is 7.8 points better than UNLV's defense.
UNLV offense vs North Texas defenseOffense -3.1Defense -5.6Edge UNLV: its offense is 2.5 points better than North Texas's defense.
| Stat | North Texas | UNLV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.37 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.15 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.8% | 38.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8% | 40.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 43.1 | 24.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.6 | 23.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.