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Northern Illinois vs UNLV prediction
Kickoff Sat 9:30 PM CT, at UNLV
NIU 6% win94% UNLV
13Projected
vs
36ProjectedAway
Northern Illinois Huskies
Record 0–7 · #138 in ratings
Home
UNLV Rebels
Record 4–3 · #78 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 0 vs 44
- Projected
- UNLV favored
- Differential
- 22.5 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at UNLV, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 9:30 PM CT, at UNLV.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UNLV by 22.5
- Projected total
- 49.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 14.1%
- Went to overtime
- 1.0%
- Northern Illinois wins by 21+
- 0.1%
- UNLV wins by 21+
- 55.1%
- Median score
- 13–36
- Model expectation
- 13.4–35.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Northern Illinois wins, bars on the left are UNLV wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UNLV 37, Northern Illinois 783 games
- UNLV 30, Northern Illinois 780 games
- UNLV 37, Northern Illinois 1076 games
- UNLV 34, Northern Illinois 775 games
- UNLV 34, Northern Illinois 1071 games
- UNLV 30, Northern Illinois 1070 games
Where the edges are
Northern Illinois offense vs UNLV defenseOffense -8.7Defense +2.3Edge UNLV: its defense is 10.9 points better than Northern Illinois's offense.
UNLV offense vs Northern Illinois defenseOffense -3.1Defense -11.7Edge UNLV: its offense is 8.6 points better than Northern Illinois's defense.
| Stat | Northern Illinois | UNLV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.04 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.34 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.4% | 38.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 52.9% | 40.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 15.1 | 24.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 38.6 | 23.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.