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Northern Illinois vs UTEP prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Northern Illinois
NIU 46% win54% UTEP
26Projected33If NIU upsets
vs
28Projected22If NIU upsetsHome
Northern Illinois Huskies
Record 0–7 · #138 in ratings
Away
UTEP Miners
Record 1–6 · #134 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (51)
Starts at 51, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | NIU | UTEP | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 54 | 54 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up46%Northern Illinois wins at home
At a neutral site37% ▼
Northern Illinois: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
UTEP: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Northern Illinois won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- NIU 27, UTEP 2467 games
- UTEP 27, NIU 2460 games
- NIU 27, UTEP 2056 games
- UTEP 31, NIU 2753 games
- UTEP 27, NIU 2051 games
- Power index
- 0 vs 3
- Projected
- UTEP favored
- Differential
- 1.5 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Northern Illinois, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Northern Illinois.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UTEP by 1.5
- Projected total
- 54.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.2%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- Northern Illinois wins by 21+
- 6.6%
- UTEP wins by 21+
- 9.9%
- Median score
- 26–27
- Model expectation
- 25.9–27.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Northern Illinois wins, bars on the left are UTEP wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Northern Illinois offense vs UTEP defenseOffense -8.7Defense -7.3Edge UTEP: its defense is 1.4 points better than Northern Illinois's offense.
UTEP offense vs Northern Illinois defenseOffense -8.4Defense -11.7Edge UTEP: its offense is 3.3 points better than Northern Illinois's defense.
| Stat | Northern Illinois | UTEP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.04 | -0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.34 | 0.28 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.4% | 33.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 52.9% | 48.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 15.1 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 38.6 | 37.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.