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Northern Illinois vs Wyoming prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NIU 17% win83% WYO
16Projected
vs
29ProjectedNeutral site
Northern Illinois Huskies
Record 0–7 · #138 in ratings
Neutral site
Wyoming Cowboys
Record 5–3 · #113 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 0 vs 18
- Projected
- WYO favored
- Differential
- 12.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Wyoming by 12.9
- Projected total
- 45.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 31.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- Northern Illinois wins by 21+
- 0.8%
- Wyoming wins by 21+
- 29.2%
- Median score
- 15–29
- Model expectation
- 15.9–28.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Northern Illinois wins, bars on the left are Wyoming wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Wyoming 27, Northern Illinois 1087 games
- Wyoming 30, Northern Illinois 1775 games
- Wyoming 27, Northern Illinois 1775 games
- Wyoming 34, Northern Illinois 1073 games
- Wyoming 27, Northern Illinois 771 games
- Wyoming 20, Northern Illinois 1068 games
Where the edges are
Northern Illinois offense vs Wyoming defenseOffense -8.7Defense +1.2Edge Wyoming: its defense is 9.8 points better than Northern Illinois's offense.
Wyoming offense vs Northern Illinois defenseOffense -8.6Defense -11.7Edge Wyoming: its offense is 3.1 points better than Northern Illinois's defense.
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Wyoming | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.04 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.34 | 0.13 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.4% | 46.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 52.9% | 44.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 15.1 | 19.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 38.6 | 20.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.