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Northwestern vs Ohio State prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Ohio State
NU 26% win74% OSU
22Projected31If NU upsets
vs
31Projected21If NU upsetsAway
Northwestern Wildcats
Record 6–1 · #17 in ratings
Home
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record 6–1 · #5 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (47)
Starts at 47, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | NU | OSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 54 | 51 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog26%Northwestern wins on the road
If Northwestern plays at home41% ▲
Northwestern: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Ohio State: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Texas 23–24)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Northwestern won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- OSU 27, NU 1768 games
- OSU 34, NU 1759 games
- OSU 34, NU 2056 games
- OSU 27, NU 2054 games
- OSU 30, NU 1754 games
- Power index
- 88 vs 97
- Projected
- OSU favored
- Differential
- 9.1 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Ohio State, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Ohio State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Ohio State by 9.1
- Projected total
- 52.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 36.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Northwestern wins by 21+
- 2.4%
- Ohio State wins by 21+
- 21.4%
- Median score
- 20–30
- Model expectation
- 21–30.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Northwestern wins, bars on the left are Ohio State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Northwestern offense vs Ohio State defenseOffense +5.4Defense +8.7Edge Ohio State: its defense is 3.3 points better than Northwestern's offense.
Ohio State offense vs Northwestern defenseOffense +7.3Defense +4.4Edge Ohio State: its offense is 2.9 points better than Northwestern's defense.
| Stat | Northwestern | Ohio State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.35 | 0.27 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.04 | -0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 51.1% | 50.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.2% | 35.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 34.7 | 39.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.6 | 13.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
