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Northwestern vs Oregon prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at Oregon
NU 52% win48% ORE
24.3Projected
vs
23.6ProjectedAway
Northwestern Wildcats
Record 6–1 · #17 in ratings
Home
Oregon Ducks
Record 4–3 · #32 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 88 vs 77
- Projected
- NU favored
- Differential
- 0.7 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Oregon, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at Oregon.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Northwestern by 0.7
- Projected total
- 47.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.0%
- Went to overtime
- 4.3%
- Northwestern wins by 21+
- 9.1%
- Oregon wins by 21+
- 7.8%
- Median score
- 24–23
- Model expectation
- 23.8–23.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Northwestern wins, bars on the left are Oregon wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Northwestern 24, Oregon 2075 games
- Northwestern 20, Oregon 1768 games
- Oregon 24, Northwestern 2061 games
- Oregon 27, Northwestern 2458 games
- Northwestern 24, Oregon 1755 games
- Northwestern 27, Oregon 2453 games
Where the edges are
Northwestern offense vs Oregon defenseOffense +5.4Defense +5.8Even: neither side has a real edge.
Oregon offense vs Northwestern defenseOffense +0.4Defense +4.4Edge Northwestern: its defense is 4.0 points better than Oregon's offense.
| Stat | Northwestern | Oregon | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.35 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.00 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 51.1% | 41.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.2% | 36.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 34.7 | 33.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.6 | 20.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.