Loading the matchup…
Northwestern vs Penn State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NU 60% win40% PSU
27Projected
vs
23ProjectedNeutral site
Northwestern Wildcats
Record 6–1 · #17 in ratings
Neutral site
Penn State Nittany Lions
Record 3–4 · #36 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 88 vs 74
- Projected
- NU favored
- Differential
- 3.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Northwestern by 3.9
- Projected total
- 49.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Northwestern wins by 21+
- 13.0%
- Penn State wins by 21+
- 5.0%
- Median score
- 27–21
- Model expectation
- 26.3–22.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Northwestern wins, bars on the left are Penn State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Northwestern 27, Penn State 1763 games
- Northwestern 24, Penn State 1762 games
- Northwestern 27, Penn State 2062 games
- Northwestern 24, Penn State 2059 games
- Northwestern 27, Penn State 2459 games
- Northwestern 23, Penn State 1755 games
Where the edges are
Northwestern offense vs Penn State defenseOffense +5.4Defense +4.8Even: neither side has a real edge.
Penn State offense vs Northwestern defenseOffense +0.8Defense +4.4Edge Northwestern: its defense is 3.6 points better than Penn State's offense.
| Stat | Northwestern | Penn State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.35 | 0.12 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 51.1% | 40.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.2% | 40.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 34.7 | 28.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.6 | 18.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.