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Northwestern vs Rutgers prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
NU 86% win14% RUTG
38Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
Northwestern Wildcats
Record 6–1 · #17 in ratings
Neutral site
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Record 2–5 · #107 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 88 vs 23
- Projected
- NU favored
- Differential
- 16.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Northwestern by 16.1
- Projected total
- 60.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 24.9%
- Went to overtime
- 1.8%
- Northwestern wins by 21+
- 38.8%
- Rutgers wins by 21+
- 0.9%
- Median score
- 38–21
- Model expectation
- 38.1–21.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Northwestern wins, bars on the left are Rutgers wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Northwestern 37, Rutgers 1756 games
- Northwestern 37, Rutgers 2053 games
- Northwestern 30, Rutgers 2453 games
- Northwestern 41, Rutgers 1752 games
- Northwestern 34, Rutgers 1751 games
- Northwestern 37, Rutgers 2750 games
Where the edges are
Northwestern offense vs Rutgers defenseOffense +5.4Defense -7.0Edge Northwestern: its offense is 12.3 points better than Rutgers's defense.
Rutgers offense vs Northwestern defenseOffense +0.4Defense +4.4Edge Northwestern: its defense is 4.0 points better than Rutgers's offense.
| Stat | Northwestern | Rutgers | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.35 | 0.10 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.29 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 51.1% | 44.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.2% | 49.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 34.7 | 28.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.6 | 33.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.