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Notre Dame vs Navy prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at a neutral site
ND 93% win7% NAVY
37Projected24If NAVY upsets
vs
17Projected30If NAVY upsetsNeutral site
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Record 6–1 · #1 in ratings
Neutral site
Navy Midshipmen
Record 2–5 · #84 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (41)
Starts at 41, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | ND | NAVY | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 29 | 39 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Long shot7%Navy wins at a neutral site
If Navy plays at home11% ▲
Navy: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Tulsa 34–26)
Notre Dame: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (BYU 24–28)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Navy won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- ND 37, NAVY 1080 games
- ND 37, NAVY 1777 games
- ND 34, NAVY 1772 games
- ND 30, NAVY 1765 games
- ND 34, NAVY 1064 games
- Power index
- 100 vs 39
- Projected
- ND favored
- Differential
- 20.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at a neutral site.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Notre Dame by 20.2
- Projected total
- 53.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 16.7%
- Went to overtime
- 1.0%
- Notre Dame wins by 21+
- 48.9%
- Navy wins by 21+
- 0.3%
- Median score
- 37–16
- Model expectation
- 36.8–16.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Notre Dame wins, bars on the left are Navy wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Notre Dame offense vs Navy defenseOffense +8.4Defense -2.6Edge Notre Dame: its offense is 11.1 points better than Navy's defense.
Navy offense vs Notre Dame defenseOffense +0.1Defense +9.4Edge Notre Dame: its defense is 9.2 points better than Navy's offense.
| Stat | Notre Dame | Navy | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.36 | 0.19 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.08 | 0.18 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.9% | 47.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.5% | 40.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 41.1 | 29.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 13.4 | 29.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
