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Notre Dame vs Purdue prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ND 88% win12% PUR
39Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Record 6–1 · #1 in ratings
Neutral site
Purdue Boilermakers
Record 3–4 · #68 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 100 vs 51
- Projected
- ND favored
- Differential
- 17.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Notre Dame by 17.3
- Projected total
- 60.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 22.5%
- Went to overtime
- 1.6%
- Notre Dame wins by 21+
- 41.1%
- Purdue wins by 21+
- 0.6%
- Median score
- 39–21
- Model expectation
- 39–21.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Notre Dame wins, bars on the left are Purdue wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Notre Dame 37, Purdue 1765 games
- Notre Dame 37, Purdue 2458 games
- Notre Dame 40, Purdue 1758 games
- Notre Dame 41, Purdue 1754 games
- Notre Dame 44, Purdue 1752 games
- Notre Dame 44, Purdue 2750 games
Where the edges are
Notre Dame offense vs Purdue defenseOffense +8.4Defense -4.8Edge Notre Dame: its offense is 13.3 points better than Purdue's defense.
Purdue offense vs Notre Dame defenseOffense +5.2Defense +9.4Edge Notre Dame: its defense is 4.2 points better than Purdue's offense.
| Stat | Notre Dame | Purdue | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.36 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.08 | 0.27 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.9% | 45.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.5% | 47.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 41.1 | 31.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 13.4 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.