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Notre Dame vs Rice prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ND 97% win3% RICE
38Projected
vs
12ProjectedNeutral site
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Record 6–1 · #1 in ratings
Neutral site
Rice Owls
Record 1–7 · #115 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 100 vs 17
- Projected
- ND favored
- Differential
- 25.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Notre Dame by 25.7
- Projected total
- 49.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 9.0%
- Went to overtime
- 0.5%
- Notre Dame wins by 21+
- 65.0%
- Rice wins by 21+
- 0.1%
- Median score
- 37–10
- Model expectation
- 37.6–11.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Notre Dame wins, bars on the left are Rice wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Notre Dame 41, Rice 7104 games
- Notre Dame 37, Rice 797 games
- Notre Dame 30, Rice 789 games
- Notre Dame 37, Rice 1087 games
- Notre Dame 40, Rice 781 games
- Notre Dame 37, Rice 377 games
Where the edges are
Notre Dame offense vs Rice defenseOffense +8.4Defense -3.3Edge Notre Dame: its offense is 11.8 points better than Rice's defense.
Rice offense vs Notre Dame defenseOffense -4.8Defense +9.4Edge Notre Dame: its defense is 14.2 points better than Rice's offense.
| Stat | Notre Dame | Rice | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.36 | 0.03 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.08 | 0.15 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.9% | 40.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.5% | 42.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 41.1 | 21.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 13.4 | 31.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.