Loading the matchup…
Notre Dame vs Stanford prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ND 97% win3% STAN
38Projected
vs
12ProjectedNeutral site
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Record 6–1 · #1 in ratings
Neutral site
Stanford Cardinal
Record 4–4 · #121 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 100 vs 12
- Projected
- ND favored
- Differential
- 26.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Notre Dame by 26.3
- Projected total
- 49.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 8.0%
- Went to overtime
- 0.3%
- Notre Dame wins by 21+
- 67.1%
- Stanford wins by 21+
- 0.0%
- Median score
- 37–10
- Model expectation
- 38.1–11.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Notre Dame wins, bars on the left are Stanford wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Notre Dame 37, Stanford 7107 games
- Notre Dame 30, Stanford 790 games
- Notre Dame 44, Stanford 785 games
- Notre Dame 33, Stanford 1084 games
- Notre Dame 41, Stanford 780 games
- Notre Dame 30, Stanford 1080 games
Where the edges are
Notre Dame offense vs Stanford defenseOffense +8.4Defense -3.9Edge Notre Dame: its offense is 12.3 points better than Stanford's defense.
Stanford offense vs Notre Dame defenseOffense -4.8Defense +9.4Edge Notre Dame: its defense is 14.1 points better than Stanford's offense.
| Stat | Notre Dame | Stanford | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.36 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.08 | 0.31 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.9% | 40.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.5% | 47.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 41.1 | 19.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 13.4 | 35.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.